Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 1.934642 2.041998 2.154420 2.281327 2.421090 2.570875 2.744286
2025-06-29 1.751475 1.896973 2.056135 2.244540 2.463306 2.711643 3.018285
2025-07-06 1.622533 1.786898 1.971924 2.198105 2.470650 2.793247 3.211550
2025-07-13 1.562887 1.746202 1.957789 2.223985 2.555842 2.964489 3.520407
2025-07-20 1.519491 1.718900 1.954124 2.257699 2.648025 3.146755 3.857439
2025-07-27 1.483558 1.696674 1.952969 2.291454 2.739267 3.331852 4.215617
2025-08-03 1.431126 1.650433 1.918125 2.278101 2.765301 3.428696 4.456678
2025-08-10 1.384122 1.608023 1.884955 2.263446 2.786452 3.517804 4.693383
2025-08-17 1.339049 1.565614 1.849083 2.242081 2.795301 3.587859 4.906136
2025-08-24 1.297493 1.525691 1.814163 2.219308 2.799420 3.649489 5.110406
2025-08-31 1.269286 1.501609 1.798554 2.221478 2.838443 3.765545 5.419455
2025-09-07 1.247903 1.485340 1.792225 2.235591 2.894966 3.912398 5.802323
2025-09-14 1.210019 1.446472 1.754515 2.204132 2.882218 3.949156 5.992538
2025-09-21 1.173764 1.408599 1.716733 2.170697 2.864199 3.975439 6.166497
2025-09-28 1.136109 1.367652 1.673217 2.126793 2.826984 3.965867 6.266871
2025-10-05 1.124230 1.360897 1.676460 2.151295 2.898453 4.147979 6.792483
2025-10-12 1.115536 1.357996 1.684690 2.183198 2.983386 4.361717 7.431675
2025-10-19 1.107296 1.355305 1.692892 2.215123 3.070132 4.587666 8.154208
2025-10-26 1.085700 1.333440 1.672841 2.202496 3.080821 4.670761 8.546345
2025-11-02 1.064842 1.312002 1.652650 2.188634 3.088280 4.747890 8.941184
2025-11-09 1.043115 1.288768 1.629101 2.168421 3.083305 4.799525 9.279484
2025-11-16 1.021997 1.265866 1.605343 2.146868 3.074599 4.842584 9.604839
2025-11-23 1.008588 1.253503 1.596641 2.148922 3.107931 4.975903 10.237327